Monday, January 01, 2007

Dow Jones Trend Analysis - 12/29/2006

It was an upbeat week for the major markets. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 119.93 points, or 0.97%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index climbed 7.54 points, or 0.53%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 14.11 points, or 0.59%.

For the year the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained16.3%, the Standard Poor's 500 index rose 13.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 9.5%. Gold was up 23%, and the U.S. dollar lost about 4%.
OscillatorsTrend Analysis
SymbolDailyWeeklyDailyWeeklyMtlyQtlyYrly
Dow JonesRelative Strength Index (RSI):		64.39
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	13.8
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		62.02
%D-Slow - Bearish Divergence
MACD - Bearish DivergenceRelative Strength Index (RSI):		63.45
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	4.2
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		82.59
%D-Slow - Bearish Divergence
MACD - Bearish DivergencePattern:	Uptrend
Low:  		12073.40 - 11/28/06
High: 		12566.17 - 12/28/06
Current Price:	12463.2Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		10653.23 - 06/13/06
High: 		12566.17 - 12/28/06
Support:	12235.16 (± 35.59)
Resistance:	12630.64 (± 35.59)
Current Price:	12463.2Pattern:	Broadening Ascending Wedges
Status:		Valid
Low:  		10607.36 - 01/23/06
High: 		12566.17 - 12/28/06
Support:	10881.78 (± 153.50)
Resistance:	12587.36 (± 153.50)
Current Price:	12463.2Pattern:	Broadening Ascending Wedges
Status:		Valid
Low:  		9961.52 - 04/18/05
High: 		12566.17 - 12/28/06
Support:	11492.33 (± 97.53)
Resistance:	12576.01 (± 97.53)
Current Price:	12463.2Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		7181.47 - 10/10/02
High: 		12566.17 - 12/28/06
Support:	11494.88 (± 100.37)
Resistance:	12610.06 (± 100.37)
Current Price:	12463.2
SPY Long-term perspective:
Similar to the S&P 500 index, the Down Jones weekly uptrend that started on 6/13/2006 is near completion. It has a five waves impulse structure. The annual Christmas Rally formed the final fifth wave that is now completed or almost completed. A new downtrend line toward the multiyear support is about to start.
Dow Jones - Long-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Dow Jones Short-term perspective:
The last fifth wave of the weekly uptrend is near completion. The wave is forming a termination pattern, daily Williams' Percentage Range (W%R) and weekly Lane's Stochastic are in overbought area, while weekly W%R is strongly overbought. Both Lane's Stochastic and W%R have bearish divergence on daily and weekly time frames. The Down Jones (12463.15) is near the monthly uptrend resistance line (12587.36) and close to the Upper Bollinger Band line (12469.75). All above technical indicators are bearish and point to the negative outlook for the beginning of 2007.
Dow Jones - Short-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
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