QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/22/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/22/2006

All three major U.S. stock indices were down last week despite FED's decision to keep interest rates steady for the second month in a row. They are still overbought weekly and S&P 500 MACD has bearish divergence. QQQQ lost 0.24 points, or 0.6%, for the week.

Oscillators Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly QQQQ

Long-term perspective: The current wave up that started on 7/18/2006 appears pretty strong and broke the long-term downtrend resistance. It might be a first sub wave of a new long-term uptrend. That sub wave looks complete. We expect the market to turn down for the correction that will take about a month. Then the market will resume up move into the year's end.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ formed a strong weekly rising channel with support at 39.22 and resistance at 40.68 for Monday. Weekly Lane's Stochastic and daily Williams' Percentage Range are still in overbought area. It does not give QQQQ a room for a strong rally, and chances are high that QQQQ will break the weekly up trend support line and move down until technical indicators are reset. It may take from 2 to 5 weeks.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/15/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/15/2006

During the week the QQQQ gained 3.6%. DIA, SPY and QQQQ are now in overbought territory on daily and weekly time frames with health care as the most overbought sector. The advance in stocks coincides with a slide in oil prices, as crude futures reached the lowest level since March. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is strongly oversold daily and weekly.

Oscillators Candle Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly sticks QQQQ

Long-term perspective: We have considered two possible long-term scenarios. The current wave up that started on 7/18/2006 appears pretty strong and broke the long-term downtrend resistance. It does not look like a corrective wave 4 of down trend, and we consider that scenario #2 is in play. Current up wave is the first sub wave of a new long-term uptrend. That sub wave is almost complete. We expect market turn down for the correction that will take around a month. Then the market will resume up move into the year's end.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: All three major indices overbought on daily and weekly time frames. QQQQ is close to resistance and formed a bearish Advance Block candlestick pattern. We expect the current up trend to stop soon, and QQQQ to turn down.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/8/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/8/2006

As we expected all the major US indices were negative last week. QQQQ moved down after reaching the resistance level on Monday and fell 0.92% for the week.

Oscillators Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly QQQQ

Long-term perspective: Our long-term perspective has not changed. A monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 had broken the long-term channel support. The wave 3 of this down wave was completed on 7/18/2006 at 35.54. There are two possible scenarios that we need to consider: 1. The monthly down trend is not over yet and it will unfold as a 5 waves structure. The wave 4 now is completed or near completion and the wave 5 down is in progress or about to start. That will make a new low. 2. The monthly down wave was an A-B-C corrective zigzag. It is completed now, and a new up trend started on 7/18/2006. The first sub wave up might be completed or near completion.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ daily and weekly technical indicators moved out of the overbought area while DIA and SPY weekly Lane's Stochastic are still overbought. DIA had on Friday a bearish Downside Tasuki Gap candlestick pattern. It is a continuation pattern that appears usually in a strongly downward moving market. The market indices will most likely continue moving in the downward direction. Any move up should be short, as all indicators are still close to the overbought area.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/1/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/1/2006

Last week the market rallied again. All three major indices had a nice week. The QQQQ advanced 0.76 points, or almost 2% and posted its biggest monthly gain since January.

Oscillators Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly QQQQ

Long-term perspective: Our long-term perspective has not changed. A monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 had broken the long-term channel support. The wave 3 of this down wave was completed on 7/18/2006 at 35.54. There are two possible scenarios that we need to consider: 1.The monthly down trend is not over yet and it will unfold as a 5 waves structure. The wave 4 now is near completion and the wave 5 down is about to start. That will make a new low. 2.The monthly down wave was an A-B-C corrective zigzag. It is completed now, and a new up trend started on 7/18/2006. The first sub wave up is near completion.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: We were right that previous down week was a correction, but it appears too short to reset technical indicators. Last week rally brought all three market indices in overbought area. We expect the market to turn down pretty soon. The QQQQ weekly uptrend resistance is at 39.46(± 0.12).

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

Presented by www.thegreedytrader.com Research Group.