Saturday, June 24, 2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 6/23/2006



After several volatile months the last week stock market move does not look very exciting. For the most of the week QQQQ stuck in the trading range between 38/39 support/resistance levels.
Long-term perspective:
Our long-term perspective has not change. Long-term QQQQ chart presents a channel started in mid 2003. Some technical indicators and the trend analysis suggest that long-term uptrend might be complete and the long-term support line might me broken soon. This scenario is valid as far as QQQQ does not break short-term downtrend resistance line. QQQQ chart reached the support line on June 13. Weekly William"s Percentage Range and Lane"s Stochastic are both in oversold area now. That could suggest that the rally started on June 13 from a long-term support trend line might not be over yet. Another possible scenario may suggest that the long-term channel is still valid and QQQQ will move up toward the long-term resistance line, making a new high. For both scenarios we expect the current rally to be short and QQQQ to retest the support line.
Short term perspective:

The short-term price channel has support at 36.45 (± 0.17) and resistance at 38.37 (± 0.17). The current price is near a resistance level. This resistance line was once an old downtrend
support line. It was broken and became a new resistance. If QQQQ breaks this trend line again then the old resistance line will become a valid resistance once again. This is necessary to reset weekly oversold indicators and it will allow the next strong down wave to start. If QQQQ does not break the current resistance now and turns down, then both weekly and daily oscillators will be oversold soon and the down wave should be exhausted.

Sunday, June 18, 2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 6/16/2006



QQQQ made a lower low on Tuesday and then rallied. Wow! What a spectacular rally - 4.2% (from 37.16 to 38.79) in two days. Now you can see the power of the double support (weekly and monthly trend support lines). That is exactly what we meant last week saying that "QQQQ may have short-term rally from 37.0 - 37.5 support area."
Long term perspective:

Our long-term perspective has not change much. Back in May we suggested that QQQQ trend presents a long-term channel started in mid 2003. QQQQ chart reached the resistance level on January 11, 2006 and turned down toward the support line. This move was completed on Tuesday, June 13. The new rally started from a long-term support trend line. Some technical indicators and trend analysis suggest that long-term uptrend might be over and the long-term support line might me broken soon. Another possible scenario may suggest that the long-term channel is still valid and QQQQ will move up till resistance line makes a new high. For both scenarios we expect the current rally to be short and QQQQ to retest the support line.
Short term perspective:

Based on our long-term perspective we expect the current rally to be short and QQQQ move down to retest the long-term support line. As we suggested last week QQQQ most likely will continue to oscillate along the short-term downtrend support or the resistance line.

Sunday, June 11, 2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 6/09/2006


QQQQ Trend Analysis - 6/09/2006
Last week QQQQ was not able to break resistance area at 40 and moved down sharply. It lost 3.76% and made a lower low - 37.49. The table below presents QQQQ trend analysis and technical indicators.

















OscillatorsTrend Analysis
SymbolDailyWeeklyDailyWeeklyMonthlyQuarterlyYearly
QQQQ'Relative'RelativePattern:	DownTrend
High: 		40.00 - 06/02/06
Low:  		37.49 - 06/08/06
Current Price:	38.15Pattern:	Falling Channel
Status:		Valid
High: 		43.05 - 04/07/06
Low:  		37.49 - 06/08/06
Support:	37.44 (± 0.17)
Resistance:	39.35 (± 0.17)
Current Price:	38.15Pattern:	Broadening Descending Wedges
Status:		Valid
High: 		43.31 - 01/11/06
Low:  		37.49 - 06/08/06
Support:	37.54 (± 0.43)
Resistance:	42.33 (± 0.43)
Current Price:	38.15Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Testing Resistance
Low:  		34.35 - 04/29/05
High: 		43.31 - 01/11/06
Support:	41.82 (± 0.38)
Resistance:	46.01 (± 0.38)
Current Price:	38.15Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		32.35 - 08/13/04
High: 		43.31 - 01/11/06
Support:	37.11 (± 0.66)
Resistance:	44.42 (± 0.66)
Current Price:	38.15
Long term perspective:
Our long-term perspective has not change. A long-term channel started in mid 2003 and the current short-term wave is moving down from a channel resistance toward a channel support level. QQQQ now is very close to the long-term support trend line (37.0 – 37.5). Longer term trend analysis and weekly technical indicators are suggesting that down wave may break long-term support trend line.

QQQQ - Monthly Trend
Short term perspective:
Price is very close to both short-term and long-term support lines. Lane’s stochastic and MACD both show bullish divergence. In addition, weekly William"s Percentage Range (W%R) indicator is in oversold area. QQQQ may have short-term rally from 37.0 – 37.5 support area. But on the other hand, since daily and weekly oscillators are not in oversold area yet the down trend is not complete. QQQQ most likely will continue to oscillate along downtrend support or resistance line until daily and weekly oscillators are in oversold area.
QQQQ - Weekly Trend
Have a nice day.
www.thegreedytrader.com

Saturday, June 03, 2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 6/02/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 6/02/2006
Daily trends for all three major indices – Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq are up, but our long-term and short-term perspectives have not changed much. Below presented our QQQQ trend analysis and technical indicators. Move the cursor over the icons to see technical indicators and trend details.

OscillatorsTrend Analysis
SymbolDailyWeeklyDailyWeeklyMonthlyQuarterlyYearly
QQQQ'Relative'RelativePattern:	Uptrend
Low:  		38.23 - 05/24/06
High: 		40.00 - 06/02/06
Current Price:	39.642Pattern:	Broadening Descending Wedges
Status:		Valid
High: 		43.05 - 04/07/06
Low:  		38.23 - 05/24/06
Support:	37.53 (± 0.42)
Resistance:	42.25 (± 0.42)
Current Price:	39.642Pattern:	Broadening Descending Wedges
Status:		Valid
High: 		43.31 - 01/11/06
Low:  		38.23 - 05/24/06
Support:	38.13 (± 0.38)
Resistance:	42.36 (± 0.38)
Current Price:	39.642Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Testing Resistance
Low:  		34.35 - 04/29/05
High: 		43.31 - 01/11/06
Support:	41.69 (± 0.38)
Resistance:	45.88 (± 0.38)
Current Price:	39.642Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		32.35 - 08/13/04
High: 		43.31 - 01/11/06
Support:	37.06 (± 0.66)
Resistance:	44.37 (± 0.66)
Current Price:	39.642
Long term perspective:
QQQQ long-term trend support is near 37.06 now. QQQQ did not reach this level yet. We still expect the chart at least re-test long-term trend support line once again.
QQQQ - Monthly Trend
Short term perspective:
Short-term rally, that we expected, may not be over yet. Resistance area between 39.5 and 40 still holds.
1. If QQQQ is not able to break this level, then the chart will form a head and shoulder pattern with the right shoulder forming now. This pattern may break the long-term support line.
2. If QQQQ break resistance, then 41 – 41.5 is the next target. This move should complete the short-term rally and turn down to retest the long-term support.
Have a nice day.
www.thegreedytrader.com