Saturday, October 28, 2006

SP 500 Trend Analysis - 10/27/2006

S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 10/27/2006
It was a positive week for the major markets. The Dow and the S&P 500 gained 0.73% and 0.64%, respectively, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.36%.
OscillatorsTrend Analysis
SymbolDailyWeeklyDailyWeeklyMonthlyQuarterlyYearlyAlerts
Dow JonesRelative Strength Index (RSI):		73.76
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	11.4
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		77.21
%D-Slow - Bearish Divergence
MACD - Bearish DivergenceRelative Strength Index (RSI):		67.60
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	4.5
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		92.23
%D-Slow - Bearish DivergencePattern:	Uptrend
Low:  		11608.23 - 10/03/06
High: 		12236.10 - 10/26/06
Current Price:	12090.3Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		10653.23 - 06/13/06
High: 		12236.10 - 10/26/06
Support:	11722.80 (± 40.44)
Resistance:	12172.16 (± 40.44)
Current Price:	12090.3Pattern:	Broadening Ascending Wedges
Status:		Valid
Low:  		10607.36 - 01/23/06
High: 		12236.10 - 10/26/06
Support:	10861.25 (± 127.78)
Resistance:	12281.02 (± 127.78)
Current Price:	12090.3Pattern:	Broadening Ascending Wedges
Status:		Valid
Low:  		9961.52 - 04/18/05
High: 		12236.10 - 10/26/06
Support:	11339.56 (± 80.49)
Resistance:	12233.85 (± 80.49)
Current Price:	12090.3Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		7181.47 - 10/10/02
High: 		12236.10 - 10/26/06
Support:	11348.45 (± 99.56)
Resistance:	12454.64 (± 99.56)
Current Price:	12090.3
S&P 500Relative Strength Index (RSI):		69.87
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	1.3
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		90.79
MACD - Bearish DivergenceRelative Strength Index (RSI):		66.46
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	0.5
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		96.28Pattern:	Uptrend
Low:  		1290.93 - 09/11/06
High: 		1389.45 - 10/26/06
Current Price:	1377.34Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		1224.54 - 07/18/06
High: 		1389.45 - 10/26/06
Support:	1357.38 (± 2.82)
Resistance:	1388.72 (± 2.82)
Current Price:	1377.34Pattern:	Broadening Right-Angled, Descending Wedge
Status:		Valid
Low:  		1219.29 - 06/14/06
High: 		1389.45 - 10/26/06
Support:	1219.80 (± 15.43)
Resistance:	1391.19 (± 15.43)
Current Price:	1377.34Pattern:	Falling Channel
Status:		Support Broken
High: 		1552.87 - 03/24/00
Low:  		768.63 - 10/10/02
Current Price:	1377.34Pattern:	DownTrend
High: 		1552.87 - 03/24/00
Low:  		768.63 - 10/10/02
Current Price:	1377.34Uptrend Exhaustion
Long-term perspective:
Our perspective has not change. The S&P 500 is now near the long-term channel resistance line. There are two possible scenarios that we would like to consider.

1.The S&P 500 index turns from the channel resistance line and moves down until it reaches the channel support line.

2.The S&P 500 turns from the channel resistance line and moves down for a few weeks to reset overbought technical indicators, and then the index rally again to retest channel resistance. In this scenario S&P may form a rising wedge along the channel resistance line. You can see the similar pattern (highlighted in red) on S&P short-term chart.

In both scenarios suggested above the index should turn down near the long-term channel resistance line. S&P 500 index uptrend from 6/14/2006 has 3 waves structure so far. If scenario #2 is correct, S&P 500 index is going to move down, and then the market will rally into the end of the year. It will present waves 4 and 5 to complete 5 waves impulse structure.
S&P 500 index - Long-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Short-term perspective:
To describe the market condition as strongly overbought is not enough. During the last three weeks S&P 500 weekly Williams' % Range was less then 1% four days. Last time we had similar reading in January 2004 during the first rally at the beginning of the current bull market. While such market behavior is quite normal after the strong bear market, it is unusual for a mature bull market. From the technical point of view we should not care what kind of economical or political reasons draw the indicators crazy, but we should consider that stronger indicators usually are followed by the sharper decline. We don't expect a strong Christmas rally now. The S&P 500 weekly and monthly trends resistance is now at 1388.72 and 1391.19.
S&P 500 index - Short-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Presented by www.thegreedytrader.com Research Group.

Saturday, October 21, 2006

S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 10/20/2006

S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 10/20/2006
The Dow closed over 12,000, up 0.35% for the week. The S&P 500 Index edged up 2.98 points, or 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index lost 14.99 points, or 0.6%.
Long-term perspective:
Our perspective has not change. The S&P 500 is now near the long-term channel resistance line. There are two possible scenarios that we would like to consider.

1.The S&P 500 index turns from the channel resistance line and moves down until it reaches the channel support line.

2.The S∓P 500 turns from the channel resistance line and moves down for a few weeks to reset overbought technical indicators, and then the index rally again to retest channel resistance. In this scenario S&P may form a rising wedge along the channel resistance line. You can see the similar pattern (highlighted in red) on S&P short-term chart.

In both scenarios suggested above the index should turn down near the long-term channel resistance line. S&P 500 index uptrend from 6/14/2006 has 3 waves structure so far, as shown on the chart at the bottom of the screen. If scenario #2 is correct, S&P 500 index is going to move down for two or three weeks to the level around 1318, and then the market will rally into the end of the year. It will present waves 4 and 5 to complete 5 waves impulse structure.
S&P 500 index - Long-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Short-term perspective:
Mixed weekly results represent equilibrium between bulls and bears. Neither the bulls nor bears are winning. It might be the warning sign that the trend has peaked or is close to peaking. Technical indicators are still overbought and look very similar to January 2006.
S&P 500 index - Short-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Presented by www.thegreedytrader.com Research Group.

Sunday, October 15, 2006

S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 10/13/2006

S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 10/13/2006
The Dow Jones was up 0.9 percent for the week ending on Friday at another record high of 11,960.51. Standard & Poor 500 Index was up 16.03 or 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose to 57.3 or 2.5%
OscillatorsTrend Analysis
SymbolDailyWeeklyDailyWeeklyMonthlyQuarterlyYearlyAlerts
Dow JonesRelative Strength Index (RSI):		85.36
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	2.6
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		86.56
MACD - Bearish DivergenceRelative Strength Index (RSI):		69.26
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	1.0
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		91.85Pattern:	Uptrend
Low:  		11608.23 - 10/03/06
High: 		11960.51 - 10/13/06
Current Price:	11960.5Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		10653.23 - 06/13/06
High: 		11960.51 - 10/13/06
Support:	11556.09 (± 37.96)
Resistance:	11977.91 (± 37.96)
Current Price:	11960.5Pattern:	Broadening Ascending Wedges
Status:		Valid
Low:  		10607.36 - 01/23/06
High: 		11960.51 - 10/13/06
Support:	10856.48 (± 104.54)
Resistance:	12017.98 (± 104.54)
Current Price:	11960.5Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Resistance Broken
Low:  		9961.52 - 04/18/05
High: 		11960.51 - 10/13/06
Support:	11430.66 (± 42.19)
Resistance:	11899.45 (± 42.19)
Current Price:	11960.5Pattern:	Rising Wedge
Status:		Testing Resistance
Low:  		7181.47 - 10/10/02
High: 		11960.51 - 10/13/06
Support:	11617.25 (± 30.89)
Resistance:	11960.51 (± 30.89)
Current Price:	11960.5Uptrend Exhaustion
S&P 500Relative Strength Index (RSI):		78.61
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	24.0
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		92.88
MACD - Bearish DivergenceRelative Strength Index (RSI):		67.92
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	9.1
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		95.15Pattern:	Uptrend
Low:  		1290.93 - 09/11/06
High: 		1366.63 - 10/13/06
Current Price:	1365.62Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Testing Resistance
Low:  		1224.54 - 07/18/06
High: 		1366.63 - 10/13/06
Support:	1334.50 (± 2.80)
Resistance:	1365.64 (± 2.80)
Current Price:	1365.62Pattern:	Broadening Right-Angled, Descending Wedge
Status:		Valid
Low:  		1219.29 - 06/14/06
High: 		1366.63 - 10/13/06
Support:	1220.64 (± 13.19)
Resistance:	1367.14 (± 13.19)
Current Price:	1365.62Pattern:	Falling Channel
Status:		Support Broken
High: 		1552.87 - 03/24/00
Low:  		768.63 - 10/10/02
Current Price:	1365.62Pattern:	DownTrend
High: 		1552.87 - 03/24/00
Low:  		768.63 - 10/10/02
Current Price:	1365.62Uptrend Exhaustion
Long-term perspective:
Our perspective has not change. The S&P 500 is now near the long-term channel resistance line. There are two possible scenarios that we would like to consider.

1.The S&P 500 index turns from the channel resistance line and moves down until it reaches the channel support line.

2.The S∓P 500 turns from the channel resistance line and moves down for a few weeks to reset overbought technical indicators, and then the index rally again to retest channel resistance. In this scenario S&P may form a rising wedge along the channel resistance line. You can see the similar pattern (highlighted in red) on S&P short-term chart.

In both scenarios suggested above the index should turn down near the long-term channel resistance line. If scenario #2 is correct, S&P 500 index is going to move down for two or three weeks to the level around 1318, and then the market will rally into the end of the year.
S&P 500 index - Long-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Short-term perspective:
The probability of the reversal rises as more technical indicators turned red. Both Dow Jones and S&P 500 have uptrend exhaustion alerts. The rank of alerts rose higher as both indices reached the trendline resistance level on several different time frames in addition to strongly overbought technical indicators.
S&P 500 index - Short-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Presented by www.thegreedytrader.com Research Group.

Sunday, October 08, 2006

S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 10/06/2006

S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 10/06/2006
It was a positive week for the major US indices. The Dow gained 1.5% while the S&P 500 index rose 1.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.8%.
Long-term perspective:
We are going to discuss the S&P 500 index chart today as it can give us more clues for the future direction. The chart below presents the S&P 500 index long-term channel that began in January 2003. The S&P 500 is now near the channel resistance line. There are two possible scenarios that we would like to consider.

1. The S&P 500 index turns from the channel resistance line and moves down until it reaches the channel support line.

2. The S&P 500 turns from the channel resistance line and moves down for a few weeks to reset overbought technical indicators, and then the index rally again to retest channel resistance. In this scenario S&P may form a rising wedge along the channel resistance line. You can see the similar pattern (highlighted in red) on S&P yearly chart.
S&P 500 index - Long-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Short-term perspective:
In both scenarios suggested above the index should turn down near the long-term channel resistance line. If scenario #2 is correct, S&P 500 index is going to move down for two or three weeks to the level around 1318 and then he market will rally into the end of the year.
S&P 500 index - Short-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Presented by www.thegreedytrader.com Research Group.

Sunday, October 01, 2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/29/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/29/2006
Bull did a great job in September and brought Dow Jones near the all-time high. It is exhausted now and need a rest. For the week QQQQ climbed 0.95 points, or 2.32 percent.
Oscillators
SymbolDailyWeeklyDailyWeeklyMonthlyQuarterlyYearly
QQQQRelative Strength Index (RSI):		72.18
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	1.1
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		75.86Relative Strength Index (RSI):		56.92
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	20.5
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		87.79Pattern:	DownTrend
High: 		40.95 - 09/27/06
Low:  		40.43 - 09/28/06
Current Price:	40.65Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		35.54 - 07/18/06
High: 		40.95 - 09/27/06
Support:	39.62 (± 0.13)
Resistance:	41.07 (± 0.13)
Current Price:	40.65Pattern:	Falling Channel
Status:		Resistance Broken
High: 		43.31 - 01/11/06
Low:  		35.54 - 07/18/06
Support:	34.07 (± 0.25)
Resistance:	36.86 (± 0.25)
Current Price:	40.65Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Support Broken
Low:  		34.35 - 04/29/05
High: 		43.31 - 01/11/06
Support:	43.93 (± 0.38)
Resistance:	48.11 (± 0.38)
Current Price:	40.65Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		32.35 - 08/13/04
High: 		43.31 - 01/11/06
Support:	37.90 (± 0.66)
Resistance:	45.21 (± 0.66)
Current Price:	40.65
DIARelative Strength Index (RSI):		74.01
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	5.6
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		73.17
%D-Slow - Bearish Divergence
MACD - Bearish DivergenceRelative Strength Index (RSI):		57.27
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	2.5
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		92.29
%D-Slow - Bearish DivergencePattern:	Uptrend
Low:  		112.52 - 08/25/06
High: 		117.33 - 09/29/06
Current Price:	116.75Pattern:	Rising Wedge
Status:		Support Broken
Low:  		106.89 - 07/18/06
High: 		117.33 - 09/29/06
Current Price:	116.75Pattern:	Broadening Ascending Wedges
Status:		Valid
Low:  		106.45 - 01/20/06
High: 		117.33 - 09/29/06
Support:	108.12 (± 0.90)
Resistance:	118.07 (± 0.90)
Current Price:	116.75Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		99.89 - 04/20/05
High: 		117.33 - 09/29/06
Support:	113.27 (± 0.36)
Resistance:	117.25 (± 0.36)
Current Price:	116.75Pattern:	Rising Wedge
Status:		Valid
Low:  		72.03 - 10/10/02
High: 		117.33 - 09/29/06
Support:	115.90 (± 0.13)
Resistance:	117.33 (± 0.13)
Current Price:	116.75
SPYRelative Strength Index (RSI):		73.21
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	3.0
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		75.29
MACD - Bearish DivergenceRelative Strength Index (RSI):		58.85
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	1.2
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		92.31Pattern:	Uptrend
Low:  		122.39 - 07/18/06
High: 		133.99 - 09/28/06
Current Price:	133.58Pattern:	Uptrend
Low:  		122.39 - 07/18/06
High: 		133.99 - 09/28/06
Current Price:	133.58Pattern:	Broadening Ascending Wedges
Status:		Valid
Low:  		122.34 - 06/14/06
High: 		133.99 - 09/28/06
Support:	121.46 (± 1.14)
Resistance:	134.13 (± 1.14)
Current Price:	133.58Pattern:	Falling Channel
Status:		Support Broken
High: 		155.75 - 03/24/00
Low:  		77.07 - 10/10/02
Current Price:	133.58Pattern:	DownTrend
High: 		155.75 - 03/24/00
Low:  		77.07 - 10/10/02
Current Price:	133.58
Long-term perspective:
There are no changes in our long-term perspective. The current wave up that started on 7/18/2006 appears pretty strong and broke the long-term downtrend resistance. It might be a first sub wave of a new long-term uptrend. That sub wave looks complete. We expect the market to turn down for the correction that will take about a month. Then the market will resume up move into the year's end.
QQQQ - Long-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Short-term perspective:
All three major U.S. stock indices are overbought weekly and daily. QQQQ did not break the weekly rising channel and now is close to the resistance level (41.07 for Monday). Our technical signals are pointing that the market is near the top. DIA and SPY both have the Uptrend Exhaustion alerts.
QQQQ - Short-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
Presented by www.thegreedytrader.com Research Group.