A medium-term (Quarterly) downtrend had started on October 11, 2007 at 1576.09 and reached 666.79 on March 6, 2009. ^GSPC lost 909.30 points, or 57.69%, in 73 weeks.
| S&P 500 - medium-term trend |
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A Monthly uptrend had started on March 6, 2009 at 666.79 and reached 1219.80 on April 26, 2010. ^GSPC has formed a five wave structure and has gained 553.01 points. It is close to Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the Quarterly wave (909.30). During the week April 26 √ April 30, more than 30% of S&P 500 stocks had a Buying Climax. A buying climax happens when a stock makes a new 52 week high, but ends with a loss for the week. Important market trend reversals are often accompanied by a sudden rise in the number of buying climaxes. The completed five wave structure, unusually high number of buying climaxes during the April 26 √ April 30 week, and the Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level might suggest that the monthly up wave has been completed and a new monthly down wave is in progress since April 26.
A downtrend had started on April 26, 2010 at 1219.80 and reached 1055.90 on May 21, 2010. ^GSPC lost 163.90 points, or 13.44%, in 25 days. During the last week, the 20 Day Moving Average has crossed below the 50 Day Moving Average. Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. On Friday, the chart has formed a Bearish Thrusting Candlestick pattern. Usually this pattern occurs in a downtrend, and it shows a rally failure in a down market.
Daily Williams' Percentage Range is strongly oversold. More than 30% of S&P 500 members have an uptrend support alert. This alert indicates that stock price is near the monthly uptrend support level. An uptrend support alert usually is followed by at least a short term rally. The broken support level might confirm the end of the monthly uptrend and the beginning of a new monthly downtrend.
