Sunday, February 25, 2007

SPY Trend Analysis - 2/23/2007

It was a mixed week for the major markets. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back 120.09 points, or 0.94%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index lost 4.35 points, or 0.30%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 18.79 points, or 0.75%.
Last week we expected SPY to retest the resistance line at the beginning of the week and then pull back. SPY retested the uptrend resistance line on Tuesday and then again on Thursday at 146.42. Then it pulled back and closed on Friday at 145.30, losing 0.14 for the week.
OscillatorsTrend Analysis
SymbolDailyWeeklyDailyWeeklyMtlyQtlyYrly
SPYRelative Strength Index (RSI):		54.35
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	14.0
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		85.54Relative Strength Index (RSI):		57.64
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	4.8
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		87.78Pattern:	Uptrend
Low:  		141.58 - 01/26/07
High: 		146.42 - 02/22/07
Current Price:	145.3Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		140.25 - 01/08/07
High: 		146.42 - 02/22/07
Support:	144.46 (± 0.19)
Resistance:	146.56 (± 0.19)
Current Price:	145.3Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		122.34 - 06/14/06
High: 		146.42 - 02/22/07
Support:	143.99 (± 0.31)
Resistance:	147.38 (± 0.31)
Current Price:	145.3Pattern:	Falling Channel
Status:		Support Broken
High: 		155.75 - 03/24/00
Low:  		77.07 - 10/10/02
Current Price:	145.3Pattern:	DownTrend
High: 		155.75 - 03/24/00
Low:  		77.07 - 10/10/02
Current Price:	145.3
SPY Long-term perspective:
Our long-term perspective has not changed. The SPY monthly uptrend that started on 6/14/2006 has a five waves impulse structure. Fifth wave is in progress and forming the rising wedges pattern. The rising wedge appears in a mature trend characterized by overbought long-term and short-term indicators. This situation usually generates divergence on long-term indicators. Rising wedges usually marks the reversal in an uptrend. Price is near the monthly uptrend resistance line. Weekly William's Percentage Range (W%R) is overbought. Weekly Lane's Stochastic is strongly overbought. We keep bearish long-term outlook for SPY.
SPY - Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
SPY Short-term perspective:
SPY daily William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought. Price is moving within the short-term channel. The resistance line is near 146.56 and the support line is around 144.46. We expect SPY retest the support line during the next week.
SPY - Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
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