Sunday, December 17, 2006

SPY Trend Analysis - 12/15/2006

It was an up week for the major markets. For the week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 138.03 points, or 1.12%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index gained 17.25 points, or 1.22%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 19.84 points, or 0.81%.
OscillatorsTrend Analysis
SymbolDailyWeeklyDailyWeeklyMtlyQtlyYrlyAlerts
SPYRelative Strength Index (RSI):		75.39
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	11.7
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		82.79
MACD - Bearish DivergenceRelative Strength Index (RSI):		68.32
William"s Percentage Range (W%R):	3.5
Lane"s Stochastic (%D-Slow):		92.74Pattern:	Uptrend
Low:  		140.78 - 12/08/06
High: 		143.24 - 12/14/06
Current Price:	142.34Pattern:	Rising Channel
Status:		Valid
Low:  		122.39 - 07/18/06
High: 		143.24 - 12/14/06
Support:	141.06 (± 0.21)
Resistance:	143.39 (± 0.21)
Current Price:	142.34Pattern:	Broadening Ascending Wedges
Status:		Valid
Low:  		122.34 - 06/14/06
High: 		143.24 - 12/14/06
Support:	120.40 (± 2.06)
Resistance:	143.24 (± 2.06)
Current Price:	142.34Pattern:	Falling Channel
Status:		Support Broken
High: 		155.75 - 03/24/00
Low:  		77.07 - 10/10/02
Current Price:	142.34Pattern:	DownTrend
High: 		155.75 - 03/24/00
Low:  		77.07 - 10/10/02
Current Price:	142.34Uptrend Exhaustion
SPY Long-term perspective:
The monthly uptrend that started on 6/14/2006 is near completion. It has a five waves impulse structure, and final wave five is in progress now. Wave five is forming MACD bearish divergence. It is a sign that the uptrend is loosing the strength. We expect the monthly uptrend complete within the next several weeks, and a new downtrend start toward multiyear trend support line.
QQQQ - Long-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
SPY Short-term perspective:
The last fifth wave of the long-term uptrend is in progress. The wave is forming a termination pattern that may last into the year-end. Daily and weekly technical indicators are overbought, and price is near uptrend resistance line. There is not much room for the upside move. The risk/reward ratio is high.
QQQQ - Short-Term Trend
Technical Stock Market Timing System
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