| QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/11/2006 |
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| Last week we've suggested, "SPY and DIA are both overbought, so rally should at least pause for a while. It might be one more push down". We had indeed a down week. The QQQQ was down 0.42 points, or 1.14%, at 36.53. |
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Long-term perspective:
Our Long-term perspective has not changed. Monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 and has broken long-term channel support has a three waves structure so far. Wave 3 is near completion. It should be followed by a mid-term rally that might be already in progress, but monthly down trend might not be over yet and may unfold as a 5 waves structure. |
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| QQQQ - Long-Term Trend |  |
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Short-term perspective:
QQQQ monthly downtrend has a three waves structure. A wave 3 that started on 4/7/2006 at 43.05 is completed or almost completed. QQQQ weekly falling channel (black lines) is still valid. Last week QQQQ felt down from a monthly channel resistance line as we expected. Weekly William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are both oversold while daily Lane's Stochastic is near oversold area. We consider that a move toward the channel support line is still possible, but If QQQQ continues a downtrend next week, it will be oversold in both time frames and the downtrend would be exhausted again. |
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| QQQQ - Short-Term Trend |  |
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