Dow Jones Trend Analysis - 1/29/2010

It was the third consecutive negative week for the Dow Jones (^DJI). During the week, the ^DJI dropped -105.65 points, or -1.04%, and closed at 10067.33 on Friday, January 29, 2010. ^DJI was trading on average weekly trading volume. Read More ...

A medium-term uptrend had started on March 9, 2009 at 6440.08 and reached 10767.15 on January 14, 2010. ^DJI gained -4327.07 points, or -67.19%, in 44 weeks.

A short-term downtrend had started on January 14, 2010 at 10767.15 and reached 10023.80 on January 28, 2010. Dow Jones lost 743.35 points, or 6.9%, in 14 days. Price is near the trend low.

There are two possible scenarios that we would like to consider.

1. The Dow Jones medium-term uptrend is completed. It has formed the three waves ABC structure. A new medium-term downtrend has started on January 14. The current short-term down wave that has started on January 14 is a first sub wave of the new medium-term downtrend.

2. The Dow Jones medium-term uptrend is still in progress. The current short-term down wave that started on January 14 is a forth sub wave of the current medium term uptrend.

In both cases, the short-term downtrend is close to conclusion. Short-term rally may start soon. Daily Williams' Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are oversold. The short-term down wave is near the support trend line. Almost 20% of S&P 500 members have an uptrend support alert.

If scenario #1 is in play, the current down wave may take longer and break the medium-term uptrend support line. The reversal might be weak and short. Dow Jones will not reach the recent high (10767.15).

If scenario #2 unfolds, the support should hold, the reversal may start sooner and Dow Jones will move toward the medium-term uptrend resistance line which is currently near 11120.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Weekly Stock Market Overview - 1/29/2010

All the major US indices were negative. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped -105.65 points or -1.04%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped -17.89 points or -1.64%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped -57.94 points or -2.63%. Read More ...
The Financial sector was the strongest sector (-0.01%) last week followed by the Consumer Staples sector (-0.34%). The Materials sector was the worst performing sector (-4.71%) of the week followed by the Technology sector (-3.24%).
The Healthcare sector is the most overvalued sector followed by Services, while Regional Airlines, Drug Delivery, and Publishing - Books are among the most overvalued industries. The Conglomerates sector is the most oversold sector followed by Technology, while Wireless Communications, Security Software & Svcs, and Multimedia/Graphics Sftwr are among the most oversold industries.

Weekly S&P 500 Winners

Gains/Loses(%)	Symbol	Company	Sector
38.76%	EK	Eastman Kodak	Consumer Discretionary
9.22%	SHW	Sherwin-Williams	Consumer Discretionary
7.89%	TLAB	Tellabs, Inc.	Information Technology

Weekly S&P 500 Loosers

Gains/Loses(%)	Symbol	Company	Sector
-19.22%	X	United States Steel Corp.	Materials
-16.22%	QCOM	QUALCOMM Inc.	Information Technology
-15.82%	AVY	Avery Dennison Corp.	Industrials

Weekly S&P 500 Alerts

Stock Market Alerts	Count
Downtrend Exhaustion	2
Downtrend Broken Resistance	16
Uptrend Support	93
Uptrend Exhaustion	1
Uptrend Broken Support	3
Downtrend Resistance	1
Oversold	19

Standard & Poor's 500 Index Trend Analysis - 1/22/2010

The short trading week on Wall Street started in a positive note. S&P 500 index has reached 1150.45 on Tuesday, the highest level since October 2008. After losing 5.1% in the past three days, S&P 500 closed at 1091.76 on Friday. For the week, the Standard Poor's 500 Index dropped -44.27 points or -3.90%, and it is now in negative territory for the year (-23.34 points or 2.1%). The recent market rally had started on March 5, 2009 at 666.79 and reached 1150.45 on Tuesday, January 19. S&P 500 index has gained 483.66 points, or more than 73.5%. The sharp decline did not come as a surprise. The S&P 500 index technical indicators were extremely overbought and had bearish divergence on daily and weekly time frames. Usually the market top coincides with high consumer expectations. According to the Consumer Confidence Survey, the US Consumer Confidence index (CCI) posted yet another gain in December as expectations for the short-term future increased to the highest level (75.6) since December 2007. The Present Situation Index, however, continued to lose ground and remains at a 26-year low. Weekly Lane's Stochastic is still overbought. During the week, MACD line has moved below its signal line; the price has crossed below the 50 Day Moving Average and has closed on Friday below the lower Bollinger Band. All these signals usually indicate an up trend reversal and a beginning of a strong down wave.

Standard & Poor's 500

Weekly Stock Market Overview - 1/22/2010

All the major US indices were negative. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped -436.67 points or -4.12%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped -44.27 points or -3.90%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped -82.70 points or -3.61%. Read More ...

The Health Care sector was the strongest sector (-1.74%) last week followed by the Consumer Staples sector (-1.79%). The Materials sector was the worst performing sector (-6.42%) of the week followed by the Financial sector (-5.07%).

The Industrial Goods sector is the most overvalued sector followed by Healthcare, while Drug Delivery, Small Tools & Accessories, and Health Care Plans are among the most overvalued industries. The Utilities sector is the most oversold sector followed by Conglomerates, while Water Utilities, Electric Utilities are among the most oversold industries.

Weekly S&P 500 Winners

Gains/Loses(%)	Symbol	Company	Sector
9.58%	HBAN	Huntington Bancshares	Financials
8.61%	ZION	Zions Bancorp	Financials
8.40%	CMA	Comerica Inc.	Financials

Weekly S&P 500 Loosers

Gains/Loses(%)	Symbol	Company	Sector
-14.50%	THC	Tenet Healthcare Corp.	Health Care
-14.27%	AA	Alcoa Inc	Materials
-13.63%	MEE	Massey Energy Co.	Materials

Weekly S&P 500 Alerts

Stock Market Alerts	Count
Downtrend Exhaustion	0
Downtrend Broken Resistance	16
Uptrend Support	33
Uptrend Exhaustion	3
Uptrend Broken Support	12
Downtrend Resistance	7
Oversold	10

Weekly Stock Market Overview - 1/15/2010

All the major US indices were negative. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped -8.54 points or -0.08%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped -8.95 points or -0.78%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped -29.18 points or -1.26%. Read More ...

The Health Care sector was the strongest sector (1.38%) last week followed by the Consumer Staples sector (0.75%). The Materials sector was the worst performing sector (-3.21%) of the week followed by the Financial sector (-1.84%).

The Consumer Goods sector is the most overvalued sector followed by Industrial Goods, while Auto Manufacturers/Major, Metals Fabrication, and Small Tools & Accessories are among the most overvalued industries. The Utilities sector is the most oversold sector followed by Technology, while Multimedia/Graphics Sftwr, Wireless Communications, and Security Software & Svcs are among the most oversold industries.

Weekly S&P 500 Winners

Gains/Loses(%) Symbol Company Sector 11.27% SVU Supervalu Inc. Consumer Staples 7.36% TXT Textron Inc. Industrials 6.85% EK Eastman Kodak Consumer Discretionary

Weekly S&P 500 Loosers

Gains/Loses(%) Symbol Company Sector -12.81% PWR Quanta Services Inc. Industrials -10.99% PCS MetroPCS Communications Inc. Telecommunications Services -10.18% KLAC KLA-Tencor Corp. Information Technology

Weekly S&P 500 Alerts

Stock Market Alerts Count Downtrend Exhaustion 0 Downtrend Broken Resistance 22 Uptrend Support 7 Uptrend Exhaustion 21 Uptrend Broken Support 13 Downtrend Resistance 26 Oversold 4

Weekly Stock Market Overview - 1/8/2010

It was an up week for the major markets. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 190.14 points or 1.82%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 29.88 points or 2.68%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 48.02 points or 2.12%. Read More ...

The Materials sector was the strongest sector (5.85%) last week followed by the Energy sector (5.77%). The Utilities sector was the worst performing sector (-0.97%) of the week followed by the Consumer Staples sector (0.38%).

The Basic Materials sector is the most overvalued sector followed by Services, while Regional Airlines, Railroads, and Publishing - Books are among the most overvalued industries. The Healthcare sector is the most oversold sector followed by Utilities, while Biotechnology, Hospitals, and Electric Utilities are among the most oversold industries.

Weekly S&P 500 Winners

Gains/Loses(%) Symbol Company Sector 33.67% MBI MBIA Inc. Financials 27.90% ZION Zions Bancorp Financials 26.42% MI Marshall & Ilsley Corp. Financials

Weekly S&P 500 Loosers

Gains/Loses(%) Symbol Company Sector -6.95% PCS MetroPCS Communications Inc. Telecommunications Services -5.48% MYL Mylan Inc. Health Care -4.17% VZ Verizon Communications Telecommunications Services

S&P 500 Technical Signals and Trend Analysis - 12/31/2009

It was the first negative week for the S&P 500 (^GSPC). During the week, the ^GSPC dropped -11.38 points, or -1.01%, and closed at 1115.10 on Thursday, December 31, 2009. It was the worst weekly loss since October 30, 2009. Weekly volume was -53% below average. Read More ...

A short-term uptrend had started on November 27, 2009 at 1083.74 and reached 1130.38 on December 29, 2009. ^GSPC gained -46.64 points, or -4.30%, in 32 days. The chart has formed a Broadening Descending Wedge chart pattern. The trend support level is at 1089.92 and resistance is at 1130.43. A Broadening Descending Wedge pattern is considered to be a reversal formation. It usually appears in a mature trend, characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators, and often generates divergence on long-term indicators.

Daily Lane's Stochastic is overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. During the last week, daily Lane's Stochastic main line (%K) has declined below the oversold signal line (%D). Such crossover is considered a bearish signal. Daily MACD has bearish divergence.

The daily MACD line is above its signal line since December 22, 2009. This is an indication that the short-term trend is up. The distance between MACD and the signal line is low and getting smaller. It indicates that the current short-term uptrend is getting weak.

A Parabolic SAR (stop and reversal) indicator (1115.1) comes close to the price (1115.10). It indicates that the trend is getting weaker. A Parabolic SAR is used as a trailing stop loss for long or short positions. It works best during strong trending periods.

The price is close to the moving average in the center of the Bollinger Bands. The distance between the Bollinger Bands is falling and it was 3.9% on Friday. It is 39.71% lower then two years average. It indicates the period of low volatility of the stock price. The Bollinger Bands are often used with a non-oscillator indicator like chart patterns or a trendline. The signals are considered more reliable if these indicators confirm the recommendation of the Bollinger Bands.

The Greedy Trader Weekly Analysis Sign In 12/31/2009 Weekly Stock Market Overview All the major US indices were negative. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped -92.05 points or -0.87%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index dropped -11.38 points or -1.01%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped -16.54 points or -0.72%. Read More ... The Technology sector was the strongest sector (-0.35%) last week followed by the Consumer Staples sector (-0.79%). The Industrial sector was the worst performing sector (-1.63%) of the week followed by the Utilities sector (-1.46%). The Technology sector is the most overvalued sector followed by Healthcare, while Information Technlgy Svcs, Drug Delivery, and Semiconductr-Memory Chips are among the most overvalued industries. The Consumer Goods sector is the most oversold sector followed by Industrial Goods, while Confectioners, Heavy Construction, and Beverages-Brewers are among the most oversold industries. Weekly S&P 500 Winners Gains/Loses(%) Symbol Company Sector 4.77% HRB Block H&R Consumer Discretionary 4.24% CEPH Cephalon Inc. Health Care 3.94% MU Micron Technology Information Technology Weekly S&P 500 Loosers Gains/Loses(%) Symbol Company Sector -8.51% ODP Office Depot Consumer Discretionary -8.08% MBI MBIA Inc. Financials -6.87% PLD ProLogis Financials Weekly S&P 500 Alerts Stock Market Alerts Count Downtrend Exhaustion 0 Downtrend Broken Resistance 17 Uptrend Support 8 Uptrend Exhaustion 32 Uptrend Broken Support 12 Downtrend Resistance 35 Oversold 3