QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/25/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/25/2006

All three major indices fell for the week as we expected. The QQQQ gave back 0.47 points, or 1.21%, over the five sessions, despite a modest gain on Friday.

Oscillators Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly QQQQ

Long-term perspective: Our long-term perspective has not changed. A monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 had broken the long-term channel support. The wave 3 of this down wave was completed on 7/18/2006 at 35.54. There are two possible scenarios that we need to consider: 1. The monthly down trend is not over yet and it will unfold as a 5 waves structure. Wave 4 now is completed or near completion and wave 5 down is in progress or about to start. That will make a new low. 2. Monthly down wave was an A-B-C corrective zigzag. It is completed now, and a new up trend started on 7/18/2006. The first sub wave up is completed or near completion, and a short-term consolidation is in progress.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: Pull back is weak so far. It looks more like consolidation than like a next down impulse wave. The daily technical indicators are still close to the overbought area so consolidation may continue for the next week. We have to wait and see which long-term scenario will unfold, but the weaker is the down move the more chances are the #2 scenario is in play.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/18/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/18/2006

The QQQQ, after being weekly oversold last Friday, had its best week in more than three years. It closed at 38.79 with 5.8% gain for the week.

Oscillators Candle Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly sticks QQQQ

Long-term perspective: A monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 had broken the long-term channel support. The wave 3 of this down wave was completed on 7/18/2006 at 35.54. There are two possible scenarios that we need to consider: 1. The monthly down trend is not over yet and it will unfold as a 5 waves structure. Wave 4 now is in progress and near completion and will be followed by wave 5 down that will make a new low. 2. Monthly down wave was an A-B-C corrective zigzag. It is completed now, and a new up trend started on 7/18/2006. The first sub wave up is near completion, and a short-term consolidation is expected

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ is at the monthly down trend resistance level. Daily William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought. DIA and SPY are also daily overbought. On Friday QQQQ formed a Bearish Advance Block candlestick pattern. Advance Block is a medium reliability reversal pattern. It hints that the bounce is losing steam. Considering all technical indicators mentioned above, we expect QQQQ chart to turn down soon.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/11/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/11/2006

Last week we've suggested, "SPY and DIA are both overbought, so rally should at least pause for a while. It might be one more push down". We had indeed a down week. The QQQQ was down 0.42 points, or 1.14%, at 36.53.

Long-term perspective: Our Long-term perspective has not changed. Monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 and has broken long-term channel support has a three waves structure so far. Wave 3 is near completion. It should be followed by a mid-term rally that might be already in progress, but monthly down trend might not be over yet and may unfold as a 5 waves structure.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ monthly downtrend has a three waves structure. A wave 3 that started on 4/7/2006 at 43.05 is completed or almost completed. QQQQ weekly falling channel (black lines) is still valid. Last week QQQQ felt down from a monthly channel resistance line as we expected. Weekly William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are both oversold while daily Lane's Stochastic is near oversold area. We consider that a move toward the channel support line is still possible, but If QQQQ continues a downtrend next week, it will be oversold in both time frames and the downtrend would be exhausted again.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/04/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/04/2006

S&P and Dow dropped at the beginning of the last week and then tried to rally again. They both closed out with small gain. Nasdaq was still the weakest index. QQQQ lost 0.43% last week.

Oscillators Trend Analysis Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly QQQQ SPY

Long-term perspective: Monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 and has broken long-term channel support has a three waves structure so far. Wave 3 is near completion. It should be followed by a mid-term rally that might be already in progress, but monthly down trend might not be over yet and may unfold as a 5 waves structure.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ monthly downtrend has a three waves structure. The monthly falling channel is presented on the picture below (blue lines). Wave 3 that started on 4/7/2006 at 43.05 is completed or almost completed. Now QQQQ is near weekly falling channel resistance line as you can find on the picture (black lines). We don't expect QQQQ to break resistance right now, as SPY and DIA are both overbought, so rally should at least pause for a while. It might be one more push down, but it will make QQQQ extremely oversold and pretty attractive considering that weekly Lane's stochastic is still in the oversold area.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/28/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/28/2006

It was indeed a nice rally last week. It was the best weekly percentage gain for the S&P 500 since November 2004. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 3.08%. The QQQQ gained 3.95%.

Long-term perspective: We think the monthly down trend that has broken long-term channel is not over yet, but might be close to a final stage. It should be followed by a mid-term rally, which could make a lower high to confirm a new long term down trend.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ does not oversold daily any more. Monthly downtrend resistance level is 38.59 and support - 35.80. Meanwhile SPY and DIA daily Lane's stochastic are overbought and both are close to the short-term downtrend resistance level. With overbought indicators we don't expect SPY and DIA current rally will last for long. QQQQ has been the weakest index recently.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/21/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/21/2006

Market indeed had a short-term rally as we suggested last week. In three days QQQQ gained 2.5% and then dropped back finishing the week with a 0.67% loss. DIA and SPY managed to close the week with a fractional gain.

Long-term perspective: We think the monthly down trend that has broken long-term channel is not over yet, but might be close to a final stage. It should be followed by a mid-term rally, which could make a lower high to confirm a new long term down trend.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: The last week rally was too short to reset technical indicators. QQQQ is still oversold in daily and weekly time frames and has the 'Downtrend Exhaustion' alert once again, while DIA and SPY are still far from oversold. QQQQ monthly downtrend support line is broken. The next support level for QQQQ is 34.35.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/14/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/14/2006

We have suggested in our long-term perspective that QQQQ is going to break the long-term channel support line. Finally last week our prediction was fulfilled and QQQQ broke down the support level 37.36 to end the week at 35.94. During the week QQQQ fell 4.7% percent. Nasdaq had the worst three-day decline since April 2005.

Long-term perspective: We consider that monthly down trend that has broken long-term channel is not over yet, but might be close to the final stage. The following rally should make a lower high to confirm the new long term down trend.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ is oversold in daily and weekly time frames and has the 'Downtrend Exhaustion' alert. It suggests that QQQQ is ready for a short-term rally or at least a consolidation period. On the other hand DIA and SPY are far from oversold. They may effect the QQQQ behavior and postpone the rally.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/7/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 7/7/2006

Last week our QQQQ trend analysis suggested that an "up trend from the June 13 is a channel with a support/resistance level at 37.42 / 39.14". So far this channel controls the QQQQ price movement. On Monday June 30, QQQQ reached the resistance level 39.14, turned down and closed the week at 37.69..

Long-term perspective: Our long-term perspective has not changed. Long-term QQQQ chart presents a channel started in mid 2003. QQQQ reached the support line on June 13. Some technical indicators and the trend analysis suggest that long-term uptrend might be completed and the long-term support line might me broken soon. We expected the rally to be short and QQQQ at least to retest the long-term support line again. That is exactly what we see now. Since last Thursday the rally has failed, QQQQ moved lower and closed on Friday at 37.69. The long-term trend support is now at 37.30 (± 0.66) level. In addition we would like to mention that DIA already has broken the long-term trend support (113.32) and SPY has pierced the support trend line (127.57). Unlike QQQQ they have daily William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic in overbought area.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ short-term weekly uptrend is the rising channel with support/resistance level 37.50 (± 0.15) / 39.22(± 0.15). The price is near the support level. Weekly oversold William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic may help QQQQ to rebound from the support line, but this rebound might be short and weak. If QQQQ breaks the 37.50 support level then we-ll have long-term support line at 37.30.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 6/30/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 6/30/2006

A week ago weekly William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic were both in oversold area. That made us suggest that the rally started on June 13 might not be over yet. Indeed, after a quiet week we had a nice rally on Thursday. QQQQ rose 2.63%, it s the biggest one-day point gain since May 2003. Finally QQQQ ends the week at 38.77.

Long-term perspective: Our long-term perspective has not change. Long-term QQQQ chart presents a channel started in mid 2003. QQQQ reached the support line on June 13. Some technical indicators and the trend analysis suggest that long-term uptrend might be complete and the long-term support line might me broken soon. We expect the current rally to be a short-term and QQQQ at least to retest the long-term support line again.

QQQQ - Monthly Trend

Short term perspective: QQQQ broke the short-term channel resistance line at 38.37 (± 0.17). Now the daily up trend from June 13 is promoted to a weekly up channel with support/resistance level at 37.42 / 39.14 (as of Friday June 30). In addition QQQQ has another resistance right above 40. Last week rally has also reset weekly oversold indicators and even move daily William's Percentage Range (W%R) in overbought area. The W%R is considered as an earliest signal among other technical indicators to indicate an impending reversal. So if the current short-term up trend continues, then all daily indicators will turn into overbought by the time QQQQ reaches the next resistance area at 40.

QQQQ - Weekly Trend

Summary: We consider that short-term QQQQ rally may continue up till next resistance level at 40 and then turn down to retest long-term support at 37.26 (as of Friday June 30). Chances are high that the next down wave might break this long-term support line.

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 6/23/2006

After several volatile months the last week stock market move does not look very exciting. For the most of the week QQQQ stuck in the trading range between 38/39 support/resistance levels.

Long-term perspective: Our long-term perspective has not change. Long-term QQQQ chart presents a channel started in mid 2003. Some technical indicators and the trend analysis suggest that long-term uptrend might be complete and the long-term support line might me broken soon. This scenario is valid as far as QQQQ does not break short-term downtrend resistance line. QQQQ chart reached the support line on June 13. Weekly William"s Percentage Range and Lane"s Stochastic are both in oversold area now. That could suggest that the rally started on June 13 from a long-term support trend line might not be over yet. Another possible scenario may suggest that the long-term channel is still valid and QQQQ will move up toward the long-term resistance line, making a new high. For both scenarios we expect the current rally to be short and QQQQ to retest the support line.

Short term perspective: The short-term price channel has support at 36.45 (± 0.17) and resistance at 38.37 (± 0.17). The current price is near a resistance level. This resistance line was once an old downtrend support line. It was broken and became a new resistance. If QQQQ breaks this trend line again then the old resistance line will become a valid resistance once again. This is necessary to reset weekly oversold indicators and it will allow the next strong down wave to start. If QQQQ does not break the current resistance now and turns down, then both weekly and daily oscillators will be oversold soon and the down wave should be exhausted.