| QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/18/2006 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| The QQQQ, after being weekly oversold last Friday, had its best week in more than three years. It closed at 38.79 with 5.8% gain for the week. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Long-term perspective: A monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 had broken the long-term channel support. The wave 3 of this down wave was completed on 7/18/2006 at 35.54. There are two possible scenarios that we need to consider: 1. The monthly down trend is not over yet and it will unfold as a 5 waves structure. Wave 4 now is in progress and near completion and will be followed by wave 5 down that will make a new low. 2. Monthly down wave was an A-B-C corrective zigzag. It is completed now, and a new up trend started on 7/18/2006. The first sub wave up is near completion, and a short-term consolidation is expected | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Short-term perspective: QQQQ is at the monthly down trend resistance level. Daily William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought. DIA and SPY are also daily overbought. On Friday QQQQ formed a Bearish Advance Block candlestick pattern. Advance Block is a medium reliability reversal pattern. It hints that the bounce is losing steam. Considering all technical indicators mentioned above, we expect QQQQ chart to turn down soon. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Presented by www.thegreedytrader.com Research Group. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sunday, August 20, 2006
QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/18/2006
