QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/8/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/8/2006

As we expected all the major US indices were negative last week. QQQQ moved down after reaching the resistance level on Monday and fell 0.92% for the week.

Oscillators Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly QQQQ

Long-term perspective: Our long-term perspective has not changed. A monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 had broken the long-term channel support. The wave 3 of this down wave was completed on 7/18/2006 at 35.54. There are two possible scenarios that we need to consider: 1. The monthly down trend is not over yet and it will unfold as a 5 waves structure. The wave 4 now is completed or near completion and the wave 5 down is in progress or about to start. That will make a new low. 2. The monthly down wave was an A-B-C corrective zigzag. It is completed now, and a new up trend started on 7/18/2006. The first sub wave up might be completed or near completion.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ daily and weekly technical indicators moved out of the overbought area while DIA and SPY weekly Lane's Stochastic are still overbought. DIA had on Friday a bearish Downside Tasuki Gap candlestick pattern. It is a continuation pattern that appears usually in a strongly downward moving market. The market indices will most likely continue moving in the downward direction. Any move up should be short, as all indicators are still close to the overbought area.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/1/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/1/2006

Last week the market rallied again. All three major indices had a nice week. The QQQQ advanced 0.76 points, or almost 2% and posted its biggest monthly gain since January.

Oscillators Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly QQQQ

Long-term perspective: Our long-term perspective has not changed. A monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 had broken the long-term channel support. The wave 3 of this down wave was completed on 7/18/2006 at 35.54. There are two possible scenarios that we need to consider: 1.The monthly down trend is not over yet and it will unfold as a 5 waves structure. The wave 4 now is near completion and the wave 5 down is about to start. That will make a new low. 2.The monthly down wave was an A-B-C corrective zigzag. It is completed now, and a new up trend started on 7/18/2006. The first sub wave up is near completion.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: We were right that previous down week was a correction, but it appears too short to reset technical indicators. Last week rally brought all three market indices in overbought area. We expect the market to turn down pretty soon. The QQQQ weekly uptrend resistance is at 39.46(± 0.12).

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/25/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/25/2006

All three major indices fell for the week as we expected. The QQQQ gave back 0.47 points, or 1.21%, over the five sessions, despite a modest gain on Friday.

Oscillators Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly QQQQ

Long-term perspective: Our long-term perspective has not changed. A monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 had broken the long-term channel support. The wave 3 of this down wave was completed on 7/18/2006 at 35.54. There are two possible scenarios that we need to consider: 1. The monthly down trend is not over yet and it will unfold as a 5 waves structure. Wave 4 now is completed or near completion and wave 5 down is in progress or about to start. That will make a new low. 2. Monthly down wave was an A-B-C corrective zigzag. It is completed now, and a new up trend started on 7/18/2006. The first sub wave up is completed or near completion, and a short-term consolidation is in progress.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: Pull back is weak so far. It looks more like consolidation than like a next down impulse wave. The daily technical indicators are still close to the overbought area so consolidation may continue for the next week. We have to wait and see which long-term scenario will unfold, but the weaker is the down move the more chances are the #2 scenario is in play.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/18/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/18/2006

The QQQQ, after being weekly oversold last Friday, had its best week in more than three years. It closed at 38.79 with 5.8% gain for the week.

Oscillators Candle Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly sticks QQQQ

Long-term perspective: A monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 had broken the long-term channel support. The wave 3 of this down wave was completed on 7/18/2006 at 35.54. There are two possible scenarios that we need to consider: 1. The monthly down trend is not over yet and it will unfold as a 5 waves structure. Wave 4 now is in progress and near completion and will be followed by wave 5 down that will make a new low. 2. Monthly down wave was an A-B-C corrective zigzag. It is completed now, and a new up trend started on 7/18/2006. The first sub wave up is near completion, and a short-term consolidation is expected

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ is at the monthly down trend resistance level. Daily William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are overbought. DIA and SPY are also daily overbought. On Friday QQQQ formed a Bearish Advance Block candlestick pattern. Advance Block is a medium reliability reversal pattern. It hints that the bounce is losing steam. Considering all technical indicators mentioned above, we expect QQQQ chart to turn down soon.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/11/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/11/2006

Last week we've suggested, "SPY and DIA are both overbought, so rally should at least pause for a while. It might be one more push down". We had indeed a down week. The QQQQ was down 0.42 points, or 1.14%, at 36.53.

Long-term perspective: Our Long-term perspective has not changed. Monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 and has broken long-term channel support has a three waves structure so far. Wave 3 is near completion. It should be followed by a mid-term rally that might be already in progress, but monthly down trend might not be over yet and may unfold as a 5 waves structure.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ monthly downtrend has a three waves structure. A wave 3 that started on 4/7/2006 at 43.05 is completed or almost completed. QQQQ weekly falling channel (black lines) is still valid. Last week QQQQ felt down from a monthly channel resistance line as we expected. Weekly William's Percentage Range and Lane's Stochastic are both oversold while daily Lane's Stochastic is near oversold area. We consider that a move toward the channel support line is still possible, but If QQQQ continues a downtrend next week, it will be oversold in both time frames and the downtrend would be exhausted again.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/04/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 8/04/2006

S&P and Dow dropped at the beginning of the last week and then tried to rally again. They both closed out with small gain. Nasdaq was still the weakest index. QQQQ lost 0.43% last week.

Oscillators Trend Analysis Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly QQQQ SPY

Long-term perspective: Monthly down trend that started on 1/11/2006 and has broken long-term channel support has a three waves structure so far. Wave 3 is near completion. It should be followed by a mid-term rally that might be already in progress, but monthly down trend might not be over yet and may unfold as a 5 waves structure.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ monthly downtrend has a three waves structure. The monthly falling channel is presented on the picture below (blue lines). Wave 3 that started on 4/7/2006 at 43.05 is completed or almost completed. Now QQQQ is near weekly falling channel resistance line as you can find on the picture (black lines). We don't expect QQQQ to break resistance right now, as SPY and DIA are both overbought, so rally should at least pause for a while. It might be one more push down, but it will make QQQQ extremely oversold and pretty attractive considering that weekly Lane's stochastic is still in the oversold area.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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