Dow Jones Elliott Wave count

Dow Jones Trend Analysis - 3/19/2010

It was a third consecutive positive week for the Dow Jones (^DJI). During the week, the ^DJI gained 117.29 points, or 1.10%, and closed at 10741.98 on Friday, March 19, 2010. Weekly volume was -15% below average. Read More ... We have considered two possible scenarios for Dow Jones, and on February 19 we wrote:         The next week is critical to recognize which scenario is in play. If after a short pause the rally continues, chances are high that scenario #2 unfolds. If we see a sharp decline next week, scenario #1 could be in progress. The following week (Feb. 22 - Feb 26) major US indices did not show a sharp decline. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped -77.09 points or -0.74%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index dropped -4.68 points or -0.42%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped -5.61 points or -0.25%. According to our scenario #2:         Scenario #2: The Dow Jones medium-term uptrend is still in progress. The current short-term down wave that started on January 14 is a fourth sub wave of the current medium term uptrend. If scenario #2 unfolds, a short-term downtrend from January 14, 2010 to February 5 is completed. It presents a fourth sub wave of the medium-term uptrend (from March 9, 2009). The fifth sub wave is in progress now. This sub wave should bring Dow Jones above January’s high - 10767.15. On Thursday, March 18th Dow Jones reached 10821.49. It is the highest level since November 2008. ^DJI gained -4381.41 points, or -68.03%, in 53 weeks. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The trend support level is at 10442.03 and resistance is at 11336.82. Weekly Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - medium-term trend

A short-term uptrend had started on February 5, 2010 at 9835.09 and reached 10821.49 on March 18, 2010. ^DJI gained -986.40 points, or -10.03%, in 41 days. The chart has formed a Rising Channel chart pattern. The trend support level is at 10550.41, and resistance is at 10811.74. Daily Relative Strength Index and Lane's Stochastic are overbought while Williams' Percentage Range is strongly overbought. A short-term uptrend has formed a three wave structure. The third wave is near completion. Friday's decline may mark the beginning of the fourth sub wave.

Dow Jones Industrial Average - short-term trend

The summary of the medium-term uptrend wave analysis: the third sub wave of the fifth wave up is in near completion. The risk of a medium-term trend reversal is high.

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