The Stock Market Week - 3/7/2008

All the major US indices were negative. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 372.70 points, or 3.04%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index dropped 37.26 points, or 2.80%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 58.99 points, or 2.60%. The Utilities sector was the strongest sector last week followed by the Consumer Staples sector. The Financial sector was the worst performing sector for the second week in a row followed by the Consumer Discretionary sector. The Basic Materials is the most overvalued sector for the forth week in a row while the Independent Oil Gas, Aluminum, and Oil Gas Drilling/Explor are among the most overvalued industries. Utilities is the most oversold sector followed by the Financial sector while the Publishing - Periodicals, Specialty Eateries, and Mortgage Investment are among the most oversold industries.

Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ) Trend Analysis - 3/7/2008

It was a negative week for the QQQQ. The QQQQ lost 2.05% for the week.

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis: The QQQQ is in the final stage of the first long-term wave down that started on October 31 2007. The wave is forming the five waves structure and the final fifth sub wave is in progress now. Usually the final wave down in the long-term trend characterized by oversold long-term technical indicators and the spreading fear in the stock market. Weekly William's Percentage Range (W%R) is strongly oversold and Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) is oversold. The analysts outlook for economy is gloomy and mass media spreads the fearful headlines: "Dangerous cracks in the nation's job market are deepening", "Employers slashed jobs by the largest amount in five years", "hundreds of thousands of people dropped out of the labor force", "recession bell is ringing". "The debate should no longer be about whether there is or is not a recession, only about how deep it will be" said Nigel Gault, chief economist at Global Insight. The fear forces investors to sell falling stocks near the market bottom. In the longer term the next wave down may occur during the summer and fall 2008 and take market much lower.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

QQQQ Short-term technical analysis: As we have discussed before, the QQQQ has been forming the symmetric triangle pattern since Jan.23. The triangle is completed and the downside breakout occurred on March 3rd. According to the triangle measurement, the projected target price is around 49.5. Daily William's Percentage Range (W%R) is oversold.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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The QQQQ closed on Friday near the symmetric triangle support line

The Stock Market Week - 2/29/2008

All the major US indices were negative. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average gave back 114.63 points, or 0.93%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index dropped 22.48 points, or 1.66%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 31.87 points, or 1.38. All sectors, except Energy, were negative this week while Financial sector was the worst performing sector of the week. The Energy remains the strongest sector for four weeks in a row. The Basic Materials is the most overvalued sector while the Utilities is the most oversold sector.

Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ) Trend Analysis - 2/29/2008

The QQQQ had four-day rally at the beginning of the week, but lost 1.17 points, or more than 2.65%, on Friday - one of the worst days of 2008 so far. For the week the QQQQ gave back 1.67%.

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis: Our long-term perspective has not changed. The QQQQ has turned down on October 31 2007 from the long-term rising channel resistance. The long-term uptrend is completed, and a first wave of a new long-term downtrend is in progress. Weekly William's Percentage Range (W%R) is oversold.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

QQQQ Short-term technical analysis: The current down trend started on October 31 2007 at 55.07. A third sub wave was completed on Tuesday, Jan.23 when QQQQ has reached a long-term support area at 41.61. A fourth sub wave is in progress now and forming a symmetric triangle pattern.

QQQQ - Mid-Term Trend

As we have suggested last week, the Dragonfly Doji candlestick has marked the short-term trend reversal. The QQQQ has rallied from the symmetric triangle support line at 42.60 on 2/22/2008 to the resistance line at 44.53 on 2/28/2008. Then QQQQ price dropped sharply and closed on Friday near the support level once again. The mid-term downtrend resistance is near 45.5-46, while support is below 40.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ) Trend Analysis - 2/22/2008

The QQQQ has dropped below the Lower Bollinger Band level.

It was a mixed week for the major markets. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 32.81 points, or 0.27%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index climbed 3.12 points, or 0.23%, while the Nasdaq Composite gave back 18.45 points, or 0.79%.

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis: Our long-term perspective has not changed. The QQQQ has turned down on October 31 2007 from the long-term rising channel resistance. The long-term uptrend is completed, and a first wave of a new long-term downtrend is in progress. Weekly William's Percentage Range (W%R) is oversold.

QQQQ Short-term technical analysis: The current down trend started on October 31 2007 at 55.07. A third sub wave was completed on Tuesday, Jan.23 when QQQQ has reached a long-term support area at 41.61. A fourth sub wave is in progress now and forming a symmetric triangle pattern.

QQQQ - Mid-Term Trend

On Friday QQQQ has dropped below the Lower Bollinger Band level (42.86) reaching a symmetric triangle support line around 42.86. Then during the last trading hour, it has rallied gaining more than 2.5% and forming a Dragonfly Doji candlestick pattern. This pattern may signify the trend pause or reversal depending on where the Doji occurs. The Dragonfly Doji candlestick pattern is likely to mark a reversal when it accrues at a support/resistance level or at the lower/upper Bollinger band. A Bullish Dragonfly Doji has moderate reliability and it is considered as more reliable reversal signal, if the next trading day is characterized by one of the following: a white candlestick, a large gap up or a higher close.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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The QQQQ is forming a symmetric triangle pattern

Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ) Trend Analysis - 2/15/2008

It was an up week for the major markets. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 166.08 points, or 1.36%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index gained 18.70 points, or 1.40%, while the Nasdaq Composite climbed 16.95 points, or 0.74%.

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis: Our long-term perspective has not changed. The QQQQ has turned down on October 31 2007 from the long-term rising channel resistance. Long-term uptrend is completed, and a first wave of the new long-term downtrend is in progress. Weekly William's Percentage Range (W%R) and Lane's Stochastic are oversold.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

QQQQ Short-term technical analysis: The current down trend started on October 31 2007 at 55.07. The third sub wave was completed on Tuesday, Jan.23 when QQQQ has reached the long-term support area at 41.61. The fourth sub wave is in progress now and forming a symmetric triangle pattern. A symmetric triangle chart pattern is usually considered as a continuation formation that signals a period of consolidation in a trend followed by a resumption of the prior trend, but also it may mark the trend reversal. As a continuation pattern, symmetric triangle usually appears within the young trend characterized by neutral long-term indicators and overbought/oversold short-term indicators. A symmetric triangle resets short-term indicators to neutral and then continues movement in long-term trend direction. As a reversal formation, symmetric triangle chart pattern appears in a mature trend characterized by overbought/oversold long-term and short-term indicators. Volume diminishes during the formation and explodes on breakout. On the QQQQ chart below you can see that volume diminishes during the triangle formation and the daily Lane's Stochastic was reset to neutral. Considering that weekly technical indicators are oversold, the current triangle may mark the reversal. The triangle breakout to the upside may reach the trend resistance area around 47-48. In case of triangle breakout down, the price may drop sharply to the trend support area below 40.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ) Trend Analysis - 2/1/2008

It was an up week for the major markets. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 536.02 points, or 4.39%. The Standard Poor&s 500 Index gained 64.81 points, or 4.87%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 87.16 points, or 3.75%. Nasdaq 100 Trust Shares (QQQQ) raised 3.64% during the week.

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis: Our long-term perspective has not changed. The QQQQ has turned down from the long-term rising channel resistance. Long-term uptrend is completed, and a first wave of the new long-term downtrend is in progress. Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

QQQQ Short-term technical analysis: The current down trend started on October 31 2007 at 55.07. Daily technical indicators are neutral. The third sub wave was completed on Tuesday, Jan.23 when QQQQ has reached the long-term support area at 41.61. The fourth wave is in progress now. Price may retest the support line later.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 1/25/2008

It was a negative week for the QQQQ. It lost 3.00% during the week. As we suggested last week, the QQQQ has reached the long-term support area around 42 and turned up.

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis: Our long-term perspective has not changed. The QQQQ has turned down from the long-term rising channel resistance. Long-term uptrend is completed, and a first wave of the new long-term downtrend is in progress. Weekly technical indicators are neutral.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

QQQQ Short-term technical analysis: The current down trend started on October 31 2007 at 55.07. It has reached the long-term support area around 42 on Tuesday, Jan.22. The downtrend might unfold as a five waves impulse structure. Daily technical indicators are neutral. The QQQQ is close to several important support lines. The third sub wave is in process now. Price could make several attempts to break the support line. That would form the fourth and fifth sub waves of the current down trend.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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Nasdaq Trend Analysis - 1/18/2008

Last week we expected the QQQQ's rebound. There was a sharp move up on Monday, but the QQQQ could make it only to 48.01. Despite of the earlier rebound, it was a negative week for the QQQQ. The QQQQ lost 3.61% for the week.

Oscillators Trend Analysis Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Mtly Qtly Yrly QQQQ

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis: Our long-term perspective has not changed. The QQQQ has turned down from the long-term rising channel resistance. Weekly technical indicators are neutral. Long-term uptrend looks complete, and a first wave of the new downtrend is in progress. The weekly William's Percentage Range (W%R) is strongly oversold. The oversold W%R is usually considered as an earlier warning indicator that signals exhaustion of the sharp down trend and predicts that it may slow down and reverse soon. The chart could be forming a 'Head and shoulders' chart pattern, and the right shoulder is in process now.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

QQQQ Short-term technical analysis: The current down trend started on October 31 2007 at 55.07. It is pretty strong and powerful, and the QQQQ lost already 16.2%. It might unfold as a five waves impulse structure and reach a long-term trend support line around 42. The third sub wave is in process now. The third sub wave is usually the longest and the strongest wave, but technical indicators are already in the oversold area, and the QQQQ is close to several important support lines.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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Weekly Market Overview - 1/18/2008

All the major US indices were negative. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 507.00 points, or 4.02%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index lost 75.83 points, or 5.41%, while the Nasdaq Composite is down 99.92 points, or 4.10%. All sectors were negative this week. The Energy sector was the worst performing sector of the week followed by the Utilities sector. The Consumer Discretionary sector was the strongest sector last week followed by the Consumer Staples sector. For the second week in a row the Industrial Goods sector is the most overvalued sector followed by Services, while Resorts Casinos, Medical Equip. Wholesale, and Education Training Services are among the most overvalued industries. The Utilities sector is the most oversold sector followed by Basic Materials, while Auto Manufacturers/Major, Wholesale Other, and Processing Systems/Prods are among the most oversold industries.

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 1/11/2008

It was a negative week for the QQQQ. The QQQQ lost 2.79% for the week, not as bad as a week ago. At list market had two glorious days when it turned up sharply. Unfortunately for bulls, it did not last.

Oscillators Trend Analysis Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Mtly Qtly Yrly QQQQ

QQQQ Long-term technical analysis: Our long-term perspective has not changed. The QQQQ has turned down from the long-term rising channel resistance. Weekly technical indicators are neutral. Long-term uptrend looks complete, and a first wave of the new downtrend is in progress. The weekly William's Percentage Range (W%R) is in oversold area. The oversold W%R is usually considered as an earlier warning indicator that signals exhaustion of the sharp down trend and predicts that it may slow down and reverse soon. The chart could be forming a 'Head and Shoulders' chart pattern, and the right shoulder is in process now.

QQQQ Short-term technical analysis: The QQQQ reached our target at 46.5 exactly as we expected last week and reversed up sharply. The ABC zigzag that started on October 31 2007 at 55.07 is almost completed. The C wave is almost equal to the A wave. The Daily Lane's Stochastic (%D-Slow) technical indicator is oversold, and MACD has a Bullish Divergence. The bullish divergence indicates that down trend is loosing momentum and slowing down. The reversal may follow soon to retest the broken support trend line around 50.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

QQQQ - Medium-Term Trend

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Weekly Market Overview - 1/11/2008

All the major US indices were negative. For the week the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 193.88 points, or 1.51%. The Standard Poor's 500 Index lost 10.61 points, or 0.75%, while the Nasdaq Composite dropped 64.71 points, or 2.58%. The Industrial sector was the worst performing sector of the week followed by the Technology sector. The Health Care and Utilities were the strongest sectors again. The Basic Materials sector that has been the most overvalued sector for the four weeks in a row lost his place to the Industrial Goods sector followed by Healthcare. The Specialized Health Svcs, Health Care Plans, and Metals Fabrication were among the most overvalued industries last week. The Technology sector was the most oversold sector followed by Consumer Goods while Photographic Equip/Supls, Computer Peripherals, and Semiconductor-Memory Chips are among the most oversold industries.

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