S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 10/13/2006

S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 10/13/2006

The Dow Jones was up 0.9 percent for the week ending on Friday at another record high of 11,960.51. Standard & Poor 500 Index was up 16.03 or 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite Index rose to 57.3 or 2.5%

Oscillators Trend Analysis Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly Alerts Dow Jones S&P 500

Long-term perspective: Our perspective has not change. The S&P 500 is now near the long-term channel resistance line. There are two possible scenarios that we would like to consider. 1.The S&P 500 index turns from the channel resistance line and moves down until it reaches the channel support line. 2.The S∓P 500 turns from the channel resistance line and moves down for a few weeks to reset overbought technical indicators, and then the index rally again to retest channel resistance. In this scenario S&P may form a rising wedge along the channel resistance line. You can see the similar pattern (highlighted in red) on S&P short-term chart. In both scenarios suggested above the index should turn down near the long-term channel resistance line. If scenario #2 is correct, S&P 500 index is going to move down for two or three weeks to the level around 1318, and then the market will rally into the end of the year.

S&P 500 index - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: The probability of the reversal rises as more technical indicators turned red. Both Dow Jones and S&P 500 have uptrend exhaustion alerts. The rank of alerts rose higher as both indices reached the trendline resistance level on several different time frames in addition to strongly overbought technical indicators.

S&P 500 index - Short-Term Trend

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S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 10/06/2006

S&P 500 Trend Analysis - 10/06/2006

It was a positive week for the major US indices. The Dow gained 1.5% while the S&P 500 index rose 1.0%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 1.8%.

Long-term perspective: We are going to discuss the S&P 500 index chart today as it can give us more clues for the future direction. The chart below presents the S&P 500 index long-term channel that began in January 2003. The S&P 500 is now near the channel resistance line. There are two possible scenarios that we would like to consider. 1. The S&P 500 index turns from the channel resistance line and moves down until it reaches the channel support line. 2. The S&P 500 turns from the channel resistance line and moves down for a few weeks to reset overbought technical indicators, and then the index rally again to retest channel resistance. In this scenario S&P may form a rising wedge along the channel resistance line. You can see the similar pattern (highlighted in red) on S&P yearly chart.

S&P 500 index - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: In both scenarios suggested above the index should turn down near the long-term channel resistance line. If scenario #2 is correct, S&P 500 index is going to move down for two or three weeks to the level around 1318 and then he market will rally into the end of the year.

S&P 500 index - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/29/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/29/2006

Bull did a great job in September and brought Dow Jones near the all-time high. It is exhausted now and need a rest. For the week QQQQ climbed 0.95 points, or 2.32 percent.

Oscillators Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly QQQQ DIA SPY

Long-term perspective: There are no changes in our long-term perspective. The current wave up that started on 7/18/2006 appears pretty strong and broke the long-term downtrend resistance. It might be a first sub wave of a new long-term uptrend. That sub wave looks complete. We expect the market to turn down for the correction that will take about a month. Then the market will resume up move into the year's end.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: All three major U.S. stock indices are overbought weekly and daily. QQQQ did not break the weekly rising channel and now is close to the resistance level (41.07 for Monday). Our technical signals are pointing that the market is near the top. DIA and SPY both have the Uptrend Exhaustion alerts.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/22/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/22/2006

All three major U.S. stock indices were down last week despite FED's decision to keep interest rates steady for the second month in a row. They are still overbought weekly and S&P 500 MACD has bearish divergence. QQQQ lost 0.24 points, or 0.6%, for the week.

Oscillators Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly QQQQ

Long-term perspective: The current wave up that started on 7/18/2006 appears pretty strong and broke the long-term downtrend resistance. It might be a first sub wave of a new long-term uptrend. That sub wave looks complete. We expect the market to turn down for the correction that will take about a month. Then the market will resume up move into the year's end.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: QQQQ formed a strong weekly rising channel with support at 39.22 and resistance at 40.68 for Monday. Weekly Lane's Stochastic and daily Williams' Percentage Range are still in overbought area. It does not give QQQQ a room for a strong rally, and chances are high that QQQQ will break the weekly up trend support line and move down until technical indicators are reset. It may take from 2 to 5 weeks.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/15/2006

QQQQ Trend Analysis - 9/15/2006

During the week the QQQQ gained 3.6%. DIA, SPY and QQQQ are now in overbought territory on daily and weekly time frames with health care as the most overbought sector. The advance in stocks coincides with a slide in oil prices, as crude futures reached the lowest level since March. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) is strongly oversold daily and weekly.

Oscillators Candle Symbol Daily Weekly Daily Weekly Monthly Quarterly Yearly sticks QQQQ

Long-term perspective: We have considered two possible long-term scenarios. The current wave up that started on 7/18/2006 appears pretty strong and broke the long-term downtrend resistance. It does not look like a corrective wave 4 of down trend, and we consider that scenario #2 is in play. Current up wave is the first sub wave of a new long-term uptrend. That sub wave is almost complete. We expect market turn down for the correction that will take around a month. Then the market will resume up move into the year's end.

QQQQ - Long-Term Trend

Short-term perspective: All three major indices overbought on daily and weekly time frames. QQQQ is close to resistance and formed a bearish Advance Block candlestick pattern. We expect the current up trend to stop soon, and QQQQ to turn down.

QQQQ - Short-Term Trend

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